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So, here we are with only a few primaries and less than 100 delegates away from sealing the deal.  What is next on the agenda to get our man into the White House.  Well, that all depends on who our brethren choose on the other side of the fence.  The current dogma will have us believe that candidate is Hillary Clinton as they always thought it might be.  However, Mr. Sanders has attained quite a following and could still pull this out and win-over the special super-delegates which the Democrats have deemed important.  What are super-delegates?  Who knows and frankly, who cares.  Their process is just as messed up as the GOP process.  In my personal opinion, once we have our nation back on track we need to take a serious look at these processes and reform & redefine them by a non-partisan organization so that any political organization may participate and promote whomever they choose as long as they follow these common guidelines.  However, that is yet another article.

What about our numbers?  Well, I have shared many posts about these numbers but have also learned that there is no significant correlation between primary turnouts and those of the general election.  They are two different animals and depend upon the state of the party leaders at the time.  If there is an undeniable leader of the party then primaries become a waste of time, however, if there is not, then the primaries become very important in choosing their lead candidate.  The general election is a battle between all competing party leaders.  The only correlation that I can see between these two events is the percentages of party support with which each leader ends up and of course the overall percentages of those who do not.

Given this, I have generalized these numbers combining all of the primary votes and determining candidate support across both parties.  When we do this we find the following breakdown.

Trump

GOP

Clinton

DEM

23%

30%

27%

20%

53%

47%

Using these numbers, for our man, Mr. Trump to win the election, he must attain support from at least 2/3rd  (66%) of the opposing GOP and another 36% of the opposing Democratic support.  Clinton will need to attain support of 1/3rd (33%) of the opposing GOP and 2/3rd of the opposing Democratic supporters.  Basically, these numbers are the same.  Each candidate needs 2/3rd support from their own party and about 1/3rd support of the opposite party to win.

However, what is not revealed in these numbers are the anti-establishment supporters who supported Mr. Cruz.  The voters which make up 50% of the opposing GOP are most likely going to support Mr. Trump.  This means that Mr. Trump actually has upwards of 72% support from the GOP and 38% of the total whereas Clinton only has 57% support of her party and 27% of the total.

Trump+

eGOP

Clinton

DEM

38%

15%

27%

20%

53%

47%

The Bernie supporters, who are mostly independent voters, are not as likely to support her in the general election.  Therefore, exposing Clinton’s connections with BIG MONEY will not only gain the support of the Bernie followers but also clearly separate the Establishment-GOP from the rest of the party which is already less than 1/3rd.

If Clinton receives less than a third of these Bernie supporters then she will lose even if the other opposing establishment GOP supporters turncoat and vote for her.  If she receives a very low percentage of these Bernie supporters which is more likely then the outcome will be a landslide victory for Mr. Trump at a 60/40 split across the parties.

So, if Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination then Mr. Trump needs to reach out to Bernie and his supporters.  Many of their ideals are in line.  The only differences line in the extend of the taxes imposed which could easily be negotiated between them.  A happy medium would contain both economic gains and educational benefits.


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