by Lanny Carruthers:
Barring no photos, cassette tapes or videos emerging as concrete evidence, Judge Roy Moore will win the Alabama Senate seat by 6-8%. You heard it here first! Many polls have scored across the board with such wide results it would make an air traffic controller dizzy. I’ll pause for a minute while some of you Google “cassette tapes”. Here’s why Moore will win.
J. Pepper Byars, editor of Yellowhammer News that is a fairly conservative and respectable Alabama news site, penned a column stating that Roy Moore would lose by 20-points if his Democratic opponent was pro-life (or at least not so pro-abortion). Byars cited a recent poll by Pew Research showing nearly 60% of adults in Alabama believe that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. Only 37 percent surveyed believed otherwise. According to the Secretary of State’s Office there are 3.3 million registered voters. Byars believes that Doug Jones, Moore’s Democrat opponent, has missed out on a block of 1.9 million pro-life votes and will rely on 1.2 million pro-choice votes. While I believe Byars is correct in his thinking that many Alabama voters will make their decision based on views about abortion, I believe he is missing other equally important factors to consider.
A gubernatorial election was held in 1986 in Alabama that had nearly as many moving parts and accusations as Hillary Clinton’s explanations for why she lost the Presidency. The Democratic primary was claimed to have been rigged, accusations flew, lawsuits filed, the Alabama Supreme Court gave the Democratic Party two options, and Democrats eventually picked a candidate. Voters furiously objected and elected Guy Hunt the first Republican in 113 years since Reconstruction. Hunt won by 13 points and received 56% of the vote, the most votes for a gubernatorial candidate ever at that time. Alabama has had only two Democratic governors since then with only one of them being elected by the people. The other came to office after a conviction and forced resignation of a Republican governor.
Looking at the recent GOP and Democratic primary election, Alabama has a state law prohibiting cross-over voting in the primaries; therefore, those that voted in the Democratic primary could not vote in the special GOP runoff. In the initial primary the GOP had a total of 425,379 votes according to the Secretary of State’s party certification numbers. The Democrats totaled 164,361 votes according to the Secretary of State’s party certification numbers. Both parties had numerous candidates in the race. In the subsequent runoff election Judge Roy Moore had 262,641 votes and Sen. Luther Strange had 218,505 votes for a total of 481,146 votes. Thus one can deduct that an additional 55,767 people voted in the special GOP runoff election, but why?
Historical analysis of the people of the South shows its people have a general hatred of being told what to do by the North. Before you start spouting off the “Lost Cause” mantra espoused by the North hear me out. Beginning with the economic/political environment before the Civil War leading up to Secession, through the war crimes and personal property destruction committed by the Union Army against the people of the South (not talking about the Confederate soldiers), the radical military dictatorship known as Reconstruction that imposed the Northern way of life upon the South, the carpetbagging of the North exploiting/making profit off of the Southern people during Reconstruction, the Voting Rights Act of 1965 requiring most Southern states to clear election laws and redistricting through the Justice Department Civil Rights’ Division for approval, the general view that everything Southern is evil and all problems in the country are the fault of the evil people of the South (past and present) all have contributed to this general hatred of being told what to do. Alabama is so “evil” that our state Constitution has a balanced budget amendment. The State of Alabama cannot run deficits or swipe the equivalent credit card of the United States Treasury or the State of Illinois with all their debt. The state can only spend what it takes in. How dare we act this way!
Many have widely claimed the 2016 Presidential Election was a vote against the Establishment. Sweet Home Alabama loved the Donald and voted overwhelming for him. Though President Trump’s endorsement of Sen. Luther Strange over Judge Roy Moore did not sit well with many Alabamians. Especially after the stench from the “Fake Investigation” of the state’s Republican governor left a foul smell in the air conducted by then Republican Attorney General Luther Strange who was appointed to replace the Honorable Jeff Sessions by the governor who was under investigation. The investigation involved potential misuse of campaign funds, state funds/resources, potential obstruction of justice by the governor, audio recordings and text messages involving a mistress working in the office of and travelling with married governor. The governor eventually plead guilty to a legal action brought by Republican State Auditor Jim Ziegler and resigned, but not resulting from Attorney General Luther Strange. Can’t make this stuff up folks! And yes, he was widely known as (Senator) Jeff Sessions before being nominated for US Attorney General and his good name and character attacked by the media and liberal Democrats. The media-Democrats started using his full legal name – Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, III – probably after a legal, authenticated copy of his birth certificate was obtained in order to perpetrate the mantra that everyone and everything (past or present and related to the Confederacy) in the South is evil. The good people of Alabama knew Jeff Sessions better than that as Sen. Jeff Sessions ran unopposed as the only uncontested election in 2014 for the US Senate. I believe that President Trump was convinced to support Strange in order to try to make friends and curry favor with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell as seemingly the face of the Establishment, not only put in his 2 cents about the Moore v. Strange election, but poured millions into this election supporting Sen. Strange and failed.
Now comes the Washington Post breaking a news story of a client by the ever-so-popular ambulance chasing lawyer Gloria Allred. It is claimed that Roy Moore sexually assaulted her client forty years ago. Conveniently the allegations were made public weeks before the election and after a legal deadline had passed for Moore to be repealed and replaced on already printed ballots. Gone are the days where responsible media were quietly slipped a snippet of information and they performed due diligence, investigated and reported on the facts. Even though we knew they were going to impart direction for the lowly public to abide by. The allegations against Judge Roy Moore are falling apart as fast as Hillary Clinton used her cloth to white wash her e-mail server clean. Just as fast as the allegations against then candidate Donald J. Trump were discredited and miraculously vanished after he won his historic victory for the Presidency.
The New York news media (liberal and conservative) have always viewed themselves as the all-knowing, intelligencia, driver of the news narrative that dictates what Americans are to believe and talk about around the dinner table. Not to mention they bear the “innate responsibility” to tell the lowly public whom they despise and are too dumb to figure out for themselves who to vote for in various elections. Judge Roy Moore is being cast as an evil person, reprobate and sexual predator by the media just as candidate Donald J. Trump and calling for Moore to drop out of the election. The mainstream media almost did not have time to switch cameras from Gloria Allred’s press conference to cover Sen. Mitch McConnell demanding Judge Roy Moore to withdraw from the race while hoping to have the Establishment favorite Luther Strange put on the ballot. The Establishment was so desperate that a plan was concocted to write-in Strange, but that plan has fizzled out like a freshly poured Dr. Pepper. Now the Establishment is floating a plan to “help” Moore get elected, then stab him in the back with help of Democrats not seating him in the United States Senate, have Alabama’s Republican governor name another Republican to fill the seat and probably get another attempt to engineer an Establishment election. Many Alabamians view these “bottom of the 9th inning” allegations and schemes as political attacks by the mainstream news media, Democrats and Establishment/RINO Republicans whom I prefer to call “Closet Democrats”. Particularly looking like obvious political attacks after credible evidence exposing the “facts” behind the allegations as false, but NOT reported by the mainstream news media. Not to mention Judge Moore’s public life and professional career has (presumably) been scrutinized for many years and these allegations are just “now” coming to light. The good people of Alabama will serve as jurors to determine the guilt or innocence of Judge Moore in light of the allegations against him and what is known to the public.
During a recent conversation a longtime friend of mine who is very astute to Alabama politics having served as an elected official in state government reminded me that “Alabama doesn’t vote for anything, it only votes against things.” Out of respect for my friend’s knowledge and experience I have to concur with him. A quick look at just about any tax plan proposed in Alabama has been soundly defeated more times than not. Only when a tax plan is marketed as benefiting “the chil’ren” or public K-12 schools does a tax plan usually pass. He also pointed out that during a family gathering before Thanksgiving that most members of his family were not planning to vote in the upcoming election due to popular belief that Moore was sure to win. After all the allegations were made and schemes concocted against Judge Moore everyone is determined to vote for him.
It is no secret or divine revelation that Alabama is a red state as a whole. Having said that I will somewhat contradict that statement. The Republican Party has never been a conservative force against leftist policies. The Republican Party is not really a party at all, but an electioneering machine. The Republican Party only cares for what they think will achieve power, perks of office and profit. The latter two usually go hand-in-hand. The Republican Party has won elections by being the better marketing machine employing the slickest clichés and marketing campaigns. Now the Republican Party is meeting Judge Roy Moore and the good people of Alabama. Having elected Moore Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court twice and despite him having been removed from that office twice, a majority of Alabamians believe in Roy Moore and his stand on principles including guns, religion and abortion.
The good people of Alabama have historically resisted “going whichever way the wind blows”, do not like being used, lied to, and told how to vote. They trust their gut instincts. My gut instincts tell me that Alabamians will elect Roy Moore by 6-8% of the vote.